Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 August 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
August 12, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1098 (N14E14)
produced two low-level B-class flares during the period. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet until late on day three (15 August). Unsettled
to active levels are expected late on day three due to a coronal
hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 086
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.