Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 13, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Aug 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted of a few, low-level B-class flares. Region 903 (S13E38) continues to be large, but has simplified magnetically with the consolidation of the leader spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 12 Aug 085
  • Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 003/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 007/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.