Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Aug 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 58
(S06W75) produced isolated C-class flares as it gradually decayed.
Region 69 (S07E65) was stable as it rotated further into view. It
was large with an area exceeding 1100 millionths of the solar disk.
It appeared to be moderately complex and may contain a magnetic
delta within its intermediate spots, though limb proximity prevented
a thorough analysis. Four new regions were assigned today: 73
(N16W13), 74 (N24W01), 75 (S09E32), and 76 (N12E75); all of which
were unremarkable.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 69.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels due to
recurrent coronal hole effects.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels on 13 August as coronal
hole effects continue. Field activity is expected to decrease to
quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 184
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug  190/190/190
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  015/016-012/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01