Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Aug 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 58
(S06W75) produced isolated C-class flares as it gradually decayed.
Region 69 (S07E65) was stable as it rotated further into view. It
was large with an area exceeding 1100 millionths of the solar disk.
It appeared to be moderately complex and may contain a magnetic
delta within its intermediate spots, though limb proximity prevented
a thorough analysis. Four new regions were assigned today: 73
(N16W13), 74 (N24W01), 75 (S09E32), and 76 (N12E75); all of which
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 69.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels due to
recurrent coronal hole effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels on 13 August as coronal
hole effects continue. Field activity is expected to decrease to
quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 184
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 190/190/190
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 015/016-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01