Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 September 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
September 11, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 1106 (S18E64)
rotated onto the disk during the period and produced several B-class
events. A 20 degree filament eruption, centered near N25E25, was
observed on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 11/0204Z. SOHO LASCO C3 imagery
indicated an associated partial-halo CME, with a majority of the CME
extending NE from the filament eruption. Further analysis, using
imagery from STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2, indicated a portion of the
CME’s southern flank could possibly be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance of C-class activity from emerging Region
1106.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels, with
isolated active periods, for days one and two (12 – 13 September)
due to a geoeffective, recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to return to mostly quiet
levels on day three (14 September).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 078
Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 079/080/080
90 Day Mean 11 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.