Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 September 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (12 September). Quiet levels, with
unsettled periods possible at high latitudes, are expected on day
two (13 September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for
isolated active periods at high latitudes, are expected on day three
(14 September) as a coronal hole high-speed stream is expected to
become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 069
Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 069/069/068
90 Day Mean 11 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 005/005-005/008-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01