Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field continues at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 12 and 13 September. Occasional unsettled periods are possible on 14 September.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Sep 066
• Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 002/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/10
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01