Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 12 September. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for 13-14 September.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep

• Class M 05/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Sep 085
• Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01