Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Sep 2003

SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 456 (S08W32)
produce a C1 flare at 11/1454Z. Region 456 has shown some growth
and weak polarity mixing. This region has simplified to a Beta
magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 456 has the potential for C-class
flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. One period
of minor storm levels was observed and solar wind speed remains
above 600 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. High speed stream effects
are expected to continue into day one with unsettled to active
conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two
and day three of the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Sep 097
• Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 100/105/110
• 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 012/019
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 014/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 010/010-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01