Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N12E49) was
responsible for the largest flare of the period; a C4 x-ray flare at
11/0804Z. Region 1589 is currently the most complex region with a
Beta-Gamma magnetic classification. New Region 1590 (S29E59)
rotated onto the southeast limb and was numbered today. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity for the forecast period
(12-14 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed, measured at the
ACE spacecraft, was slightly elevated between approximately 440 to
500 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-2 (12-13 October). On day 3
(14 October) a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move
into geoeffective position causing quiet to unsettled conditions
with a chance for active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 117
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 006/005-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/30