Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1313 (S15W13) remains the most magnetically complex
region, but has failed to produce any notable activity. Early in
the period, two new regions rotated onto the visible disk, around
the southeast limb, and were numbered as Region 1316 (S12E56) and
Region 1317 (S26E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (12-14 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft
did show an increase from 320 km/s to around 410 km/s during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (12-14
October).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 130
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/11