Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1112 (S19E40)
showed little change during the period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery observed
a filament eruption at approximately 10/2121Z. The filament was 17
degrees long and centered near S08E48, just north of Region 1112. A
slow-moving, CME was detected at 11/0012Z by SOHO LASCO c2 imagery
and did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Activity levels were quiet through 11/0600Z. By 11/0900Z,
geomagnetic activity increased at all latitudes to predominately
unsettled to active levels with an isolated minor storm period
observed between 11/1200 – 1500Z. At approximately 11/0300Z,
measurements at the ACE spacecraft observed flucuations in the B
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) along with a
sharp increase in density and a slight increase in wind velocity.
The IMF Bz reached a maximum of -13 nT at 11/0915Z, and remained
southward through 11/1805Z. The IMF Bt hit a maximum of 14 nT at
11/0936Z while density reached a peak of 47 p/cc at 11/0509Z. Wind
velocities increased slightly from a low of 325 km/s at the
beginning of the summary period and peaked near 375 km/s at
11/1826Z. The increase in activity is most likely a result of a
glancing blow from the 06 October full-halo CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods on
day one (12 October) due to lingering CME effects. Mostly quiet
levels are expected by days two and three (13 – 14 October).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 075
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 008/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01