Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
geomagnetic sudden impulse occurred at 11/0042Z (09 nT, as measured
by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). ACE solar wind observations
indicated a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream commenced early
in the period. Solar wind velocities gradually increased during the
period (peak 463 km/sec at 11/1901Z). A period of mostly southward
Bz was observed during 11/0430 – 0800Z (minimum -10 nT at 11/0636Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (12 – 14
October) with a chance for isolated unsettled conditions as the
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream persists.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 070
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01