Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Oct 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
October 12, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A new-cycle sunspot was numbered today as Region 1005 (N26E42).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm conditions, Activity was due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds increased from around 330 to 530 km/s during the period. The Bz was anywhere from -13 nT to -14 nT while the Bt reached fluctuations of +14 nT to +15 nT for the period between 11/0600Z – 11/1800Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes for 12 October. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 13 October. Predominately quiet levels are expected to return for 14 October as the coronal hole effects subside.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Oct 071
  • Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 071/072/072
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/003
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 020/035
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 015/020-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/05/05
  • Minor storm 10/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/15/10
  • Minor storm 20/05/01
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.