Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels. The visible solar disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field should remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (12 – 14 October). There is a slight chance on day one for isolated unsettled levels, due to a recurrent coronal.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Oct 069
• Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01