Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 14 October as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Oct 074
• Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 072/072/070
• 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 000/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/008-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 10/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05