Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Oct 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Oct 11 2214 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred in newly numbered Region 814 (S06W11). This flare occurred in the large plage field associated with old Region 808. A new small bipolar spot group emerged in the northeast quadrant of the plage field. A Type II radio sweep (437 km/s) also occurred with this flare.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare in newly numbered Region 814.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has declined from 650 km/s to near 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Oct 078
• Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 080/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01