Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 11 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. There are no
numbered regions on the active disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled, with one period
of isolated active conditions.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions
possible all three days from the effects of a recurrent high speed
solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Oct 087
• Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 005/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 012/015-015/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/35/35
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/40/40
• Minor storm 15/20/20
• Major-severe storm 05/15/15