Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1344 (S18W45) was the
most active sunspot group with occasional C-class flares, including
a long-duration C4/Sf at 11/0705Z associated with a partial-halo
CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 825 km/s, based
on SOHO/LASCO C2 images, and appeared to have a slight Earthward
component. Region 1344 showed gradual intermediate and trailer spot
development during the period. Region 1339 (N17W48) produced a
single C-class flare during the period and appeared to be in a state
of slow decay with gradual loss of intermediate spots and penumbra.
Region 1339 was classified as an Ekc and retained its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (12 – 14 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (12
November) due to a CME arrival associated with a halo-CME observed
on 09 November. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled
to active levels on day 2 (13 November) as CME effects gradually
subside. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected
on day 3 (14 November) with weak effects possible from the
partial-halo CME observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 40/40/30
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 174
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 170/170/165
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/01