Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Multiple C-class events were observed throughout the period,
the largest being a C4.7/Sf from Region 1123 (S22E03) at 11/0724Z.
Associated with this event were discrete radio emissions at 245 MHz
and a partial-halo CME observed in LASCO imagery at 11/0824Z and
STEREO A at 11/0809Z. New Region 1125 (N19E34) was numbered early in
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(12-14 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. At
about 11/0200Z, signatures at the ACE satellite indicated an
increase in temperature, density and wind velocity. The Bz component
of the interplanetary field (IMF) occasionally turned southward
reaching a maximum deflection of -9 nT at 11/1208Z. The Bt component
of the IMF reached a maximum of 12 nT at 11/0304Z. These
disturbances are believed to be the result of a slow moving CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(12-14 November).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 085
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 085/085/084
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 007/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01