Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Nov 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. The GOES soft x-ray flux remained below the B1 level throughout the period. Region 1008 (N33W08) showed slow growth accompanied by occasional plage fluctuations in H-alpha during the past 24 hours, but was otherwise quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is generally expected to be very low for the next three days (12-14 November). However there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1008.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (12-14 November).

III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Nov 071
• Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 072/072/072
• 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 003/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01