Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the period at quiet levels. The arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream during the latter part of 13 November should raise levels to unsettled, with an occasional active period. Isolated minor storm periods are possible at high latitudes. The elevated activity is expected to persist through 14 November.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Nov 069
• Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 005/005-008/010-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/25/35
• Minor storm 05/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/35/45
• Minor storm 05/15/25
• Major-severe storm 01/10/10