Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S04E34) has produced only B-class activity over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A single minor storm period was observed at mid latitudes from 11/0600 – 0900Z. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s, due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be unsettled to active on 12 November. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 – 14 November. III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Nov 097
• Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 029/036
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 020/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 010/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01