Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 11, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 11 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 498 (S04W67)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1351 UTC. A slow rise and fall x-ray
flare began at about 11/1523 UTC and reached a maximum of C8 at
11/1615 UTC. This activity appears to have originated from just
behind the east limb near the expected location of old active Region
484 (N03, L=355).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares possible in Region 498 or at the east
limb near old Region 484 (N03, L=355).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. A
single K=7 period was observed at Boulder from 11/0300-0600 UTC.
Solar wind conditions of high speed (700-800 km/s) and low density
(about 2 p/cc) suggest that the expected coronal hole high-speed
stream has arrived.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods.
The coronal hole related disturbance is expected to persist for the
duration of the three-day forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

  • Class M 50/50/50
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Nov 096
  • Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 100/115/130
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 015/030
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 030/050
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 025/025-025/030-025/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 50/50/50
  • Minor storm 20/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 60/60/60
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.