Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z

to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S11W69)

produced two M-class flares, an M2/2N at 11/0733 UTC and an M1/1N at

11/1620 UTC. The M1 flare was of fairly long duration and was

accompanied by a type II sweep. Although the region appears to have

simplified a little from the recent activity, it still retains

moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 191 (S18E39) is the

largest sunspot group presently on the disk but has been relatively

quiet over the past 24 hours. New Region 192 (N13E08) emerged on the

disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

moderate. Region 180 remains the most likely source of M-class

flares and Region 191 appears capable of an M-flare as well.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV

proton event ended at 11/0525 UTC. The event began at 09/1920 UTC

and had a 404 pfu peak at 10/0540 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next few hours. The

arrival of a shock from the M4/CME flare that occurred on 09

November is still possible. Active to storm conditions are possible

on 12 November if this CME impacts the Earth. SOHO-LASCO images

received after the three-day geomagnetic forecast was finalized

suggest that another CME was associated with the M1/1n flare

mentioned in Part IA. Consequently, the numerical and probability

forecasts for the third day in Parts V and VI  below may be modified

in tomorrow’s forecast product.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

Class M    80/70/50

Class X    10/05/01

Proton     10/05/01

PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Nov 185

Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  180/175/170

90 Day Mean        11 Nov 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  012/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  008/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  020/025-010/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                60/40/15

Minor storm           20/10/05

Major-severe storm    10/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                60/50/20

Minor storm           25/15/10

Major-severe storm    15/10/05