Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 May 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (12 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are possible for days 2-3 (13-14 May). The increase in activity is expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 May 068
• Predicted 12 May-14 May 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 11 May 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 005/005-008/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/25/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05