Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 11, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 11 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 12 May. Late on 13 May, the
influence of both a high-speed stream from a coronal hole, and a
glancing blow from a disappearing solar filament are likely to cause
periods of unsettled to active levels. This should continue through
14 May.

III. Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 May 090
  • Predicted 12 May-14 May 090/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 11 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 006/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 007/009
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 005/010-010/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/30/35
  • Minor storm 10/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/35
  • Minor storm 15/15/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.