Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 May 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 11 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 12 May. Late on 13 May, the
influence of both a high-speed stream from a coronal hole, and a
glancing blow from a disappearing solar filament are likely to cause
periods of unsettled to active levels. This should continue through
14 May.

III. Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 May 090
• Predicted 12 May-14 May 090/090/095
• 90 Day Mean 11 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 006/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 007/009
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 005/010-010/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/35
• Minor storm 10/15/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/35
• Minor storm 15/15/25
• Major-severe storm 05/05/10