Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Mar 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
March 11, 2009
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 of the forecast period (12 March). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during days 2 – 3 (13 – 14 March) with a chance for minor to major storm periods at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Mar 070
  • Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 003/003
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 001/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 005/005-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 05/20/15
  • Minor storm 01/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 10/30/25
  • Minor storm 01/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.