Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Mar 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 946 (N10W59) was responsible for several B-class flares today. There was some notable growth in the sunspot group over the period and Region 946 has been classified a Dso beta complex. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels throughout the forecast period. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 12 and 13 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Mar 071
• Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 007/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 012/015-012/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/40/30
• Minor storm 15/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/15/10