Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 856 (S09W89) produced a long-duration B-class flare at 11/1400Z. No evidence of an associated CME was observed; however, LASCO imagery was not available at the time of issue.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions followed the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on 12 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 13-14 March.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Mar 074
• Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 072/072/072
• 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 009/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 012/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/10/20
• Minor storm 10/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01