Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 11 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S13E07)
produced minor flare activity, including a C1.3/Sf at 11/0215 UTC.
Region 570 maintained its size, but increased in magnetic complexity
to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Earth’s magnetic field continues to be under the
influence of a geoeffective coronal hole with associated high speed
solar wind. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
minor storming possible, on 12-13 March. Activity should decrease
on 14 March as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 11 Mar 113
- Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 110/110/100
- 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 036/040
- Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 020/045
- Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 018/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/40/30
- Minor storm 30/25/20
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 45/45/40
- Major-severe storm 15/10/10
