Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 11, 2004
Filed under ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 11 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S13E07)
produced minor flare activity, including a C1.3/Sf at 11/0215 UTC.
Region 570 maintained its size, but increased in magnetic complexity
to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Earth’s magnetic field continues to be under the
influence of a geoeffective coronal hole with associated high speed
solar wind. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
minor storming possible, on 12-13 March. Activity should decrease
on 14 March as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Mar 113
  • Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 110/110/100
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 036/040
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 020/045
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 018/020-015/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/30
  • Minor storm 30/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 45/45/40
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.