Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1507 (S26E17) was the
most active region of the period, producing several C-flares. The
largest of these was a C1/Sf at 1903Z. Region 1504 (S17E40) is the
largest group on the disk and managed to produce a C-class flare.
Regions 1504 and 1507 are both growing steadily. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely with
Regions 1504 and 1507 the most probable source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet to unsettled. Minor storm
levels were observed at high latitudes during 10/0600Z to 10/0900Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (12 June). An increase
in activity is expected mid-day due to a glancing blow from a CME
observed on 08 June. Activity is expected to return to quiet
partway through day 2 (13 June) as the effects of the CME subside.
Activity is expected to remain quiet on day 3 (14 June).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 134
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 007/008-006/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/05
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/05