Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Occasional
B-class x-ray flares occurred. There were three small,
simply-structured spots groups on the disk, including newly-numbered
Region 1235 (N14E27). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (12 – 14 June) with a slight chance for a
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. Active levels
occurred during 11/0300 – 0600Z, associated with a period of
increased interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt (peak 10 nT) and
southward IMF Bz (peak deflection -8 nT). ACE solar wind data
indicated a co-rotating interaction region occurred during the first
half of the period, in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). The CH HSS commenced around 11/1025Z, followed by a
gradual increase in solar wind speeds (380 to 460 km/s) during the
rest of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 – 3 (12 –
14 June) with a chance for brief active periods due to CH HSS
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 085
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 008/008-008/008-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01