Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jun 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 11 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 775
(N10W19) or 776 (S06W08).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 12 and 13 June due to the effects of a faint partial
halo CME that occurred on 08 June. On 14 June, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun

• Class M 30/30/30
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Jun 108
• Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 105/105/100
• 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 003/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 008/010-008/010-006/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01