Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 July 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
July 11, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1087 (N19E44), a
beta magnetic classification, produced several B-class flares during
the past 24 hours. The region continues to show a slight growth in
white light areal coverage and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A chance for a C-class flare and slight chance for a
M-class event is possible from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for day one (12 July). Unsettled
conditions with isolated active levels are expected for days two and
three (13-14 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 083
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 084/085/083
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 005/005-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/30
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.