Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity continued very low. The disk is now
spotless as Region 1024 is past west limb at S25.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Although the solar wind speed
has been elevated from recent times to near 450 km/s, the IMF is
weak and, therefore, of little stimulus to the magnetosphere.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 068
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01