Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S06E28) produced a C1 flare at 10/2246Z, as well as several B-class flares during the past 24 hours. This region has decayed in both area and complexity and is now classified as a beta magnetic spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 963.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE reached a peak of 602 km/s at 11/0726Z and again at 11/1724Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (12-14 June). There is a slight chance for isolated active periods early on day one (12 June) due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Jul 079
• Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 080/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 019/025
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 008/015-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/10/10
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/15/15
• Minor storm 25/05/05
• Major-severe storm 10/01/01