Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jul 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 11, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jul 11 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N09W57) produced a
C8 flare at 11/1508 UTC and has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic
classification. Region 789 (N16W12) continued to decay and is now
an Eao Beta group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an M-class event from Region 786.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained southward Bz following the shock arrival on 09 July
resulted in minor storming during the period 0600 – 0900 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storm conditions on 12 July due to the arrival of a
transient from the CME associated with the M2 flare on 09 July.
Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 13 and 14 July.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Jul 093
  • Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 090/090/085
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 028/047
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 022/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 025/025-010/012-005/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/20/10
  • Minor storm 20/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/25/15
  • Minor storm 25/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.