Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jul 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N09W57) produced a
C8 flare at 11/1508 UTC and has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic
classification. Region 789 (N16W12) continued to decay and is now
an Eao Beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an M-class event from Region 786.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained southward Bz following the shock arrival on 09 July
resulted in minor storming during the period 0600 – 0900 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storm conditions on 12 July due to the arrival of a
transient from the CME associated with the M2 flare on 09 July.
Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 13 and 14 July.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 11 Jul 093
- Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 090/090/085
- 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 028/047
- Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 022/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 025/025-010/012-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/20/10
- Minor storm 20/10/05
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/25/15
- Minor storm 25/15/10
- Major-severe storm 15/10/05
