Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jul 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jul 11 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
from the east limb near SE12. This is in the vicinity of old Region
635 (S11, L=055). Sunspots have not yet rotated into view. New
Regions 646 (N13W33) and 647 (S14E61) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with the possibility of an M-class flare from the new region
rotating around the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE solar wind data
suggests the minor influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
- Class M 10/15/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 11 Jul 104
- Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 110/115/120
- 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 005/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
