Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jul 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
July 11, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 11 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
from the east limb near SE12. This is in the vicinity of old Region
635 (S11, L=055). Sunspots have not yet rotated into view. New
Regions 646 (N13W33) and 647 (S14E61) were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with the possibility of an M-class flare from the new region
rotating around the east limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE solar wind data
suggests the minor influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul

  • Class M 10/15/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Jul 104
  • Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 110/115/120
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 005/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 010/010-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.