Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Nominal C-class flares
occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a M-class flare for the next 3 days
(12-14 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on day 1 (12 January). Conditions are
expected to increase for days 2-3 (13-14 January), with possible
unsettled and active conditions due to a high speed stream (HSS)
from a coronal hole (CH).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 120
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 000/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 003/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01