Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity remained very low with occasional
low-level B-class flares. Region 1140 (N33W74) developed a few spots
north of its main spot and was classified as a Cso-type group. It
produced a B-class flare as it approached the west limb. Region 1146
(N23E33) showed little change during the period and produced a
single B-class flare. Two B-class flares were observed on the
southwest limb and attributed to plage Region 1142 (S17, L=212),
which departed the visible disk early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (12 – 14 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (12 – 13
January). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels with a chance for brief active levels on day 3 (14 January)
as a recurrent coronal high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 083
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01