Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 January 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
January 11, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1040 (N29E10)
produced numerous B-class flares during the past 24 hours; the
largest of these was a B9 flare at 11/1356Z. Region 1040 showed
continued growth in areal coverage (300 millionths) and was
classified as a Cai-beta group with 25 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an insolated M-class flare
from Region 1040.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind observations
from the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a co-rotating
interaction region around 11/0844Z. Solar wind velocity increased
from around 357 km/s to a max of 542 km/s at around 11/1540Z. The
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) activity showed an enhancement
of total field of 14 nT, and the southern component of the IMF
ranged between +10 nT and -9 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled levels for the next
two days (12-13 January) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
Quiet levels are expected on day three (14 January).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 089
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 007/010-005/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.