Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions on 12-13 January due to a recurrent coronal hole. Conditions are expected to be predominately unsettled for 14 January.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Jan 076
• Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 075/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 012/015-012/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

• B. High Latitudes
• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 20/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/01/05