Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a chance for isolated C-flare activity from Region 933 (S05W84).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed has increased steadily the past 48 hours to a current level of approximately 500 km/s. Accompanying values from the ACE magnetometer and SWEPAM instruments suggest the increased solar wind speed is due to an apparent high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled for the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Jan 084
• Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 080/080/075
• 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 006/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 006/008-006/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/30
• Minor storm 15/15/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05