Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 11 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 718 (S06E32)
produced a very impulsive C1.4 on 11 Jan at 1616Z. Regions 718 and
719 (S07E35) have been combined into Region 718.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 718 continues to show minor plage fluctuations with a fair
chance for isolated C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz has been fluctuating +5 to -5
nT over the last 36 hours, generating periods of active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. IMF fluctuations
associated with a large coronal hole have a potential to cause
periods of active levels through 13 Jan.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 11 Jan 094
- Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 090/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
