Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Jan 2003
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 242 (S07W61) produced
several low C-class flares this period. Some new development was
noted in this moderately complex region. More spots have rotated
into view near newly numbered Region 254 (S16E62). Limb proximity
hinders a more thorough analysis, but there may be two groups there.
Small subfaint flares and minor C-class activity was also noted in
Regions 244 (S22W56), 247 (S17E07), and 251 (S14E32).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 242, 247, 251, and 254 all have
potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A weak high speed
coronal hole stream produced unsettled conditions early in the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 11 Jan 189
- Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 190/195/190
- 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 007/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 008/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/20/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
