Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Feb 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A B1 flare occurred at 10/2311Z from newly assigned Region 1012 (S06E62). The new region is a simple, A-type sunspot group. No other activity of note occurred during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (12-13 February). An increase to unsettled with a chance for active periods is expected for the third day (14 February) in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Feb 070
• Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 000/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/35
• Minor storm 01/01/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/35
• Minor storm 01/01/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10