Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There are no regions with spots on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a possibility for isolated periods of minor storming from 12 – 14 February. A coronal hole high speed stream is anticipated to rotate into a geoeffective position for that period.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Feb 075
• Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 010/015-015/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/25
• Minor storm 20/25/20
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/30
• Minor storm 25/30/25
• Major-severe storm 10/15/10