Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. LASCO imagery showed a CME on the SE limb beginning at about 10/2330Z which does not appear to be Earth directed. One spot remains visible in Region 853 (S09W78).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to a recurrent coronal hole.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Quiet conditions should return on 13 Feb.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Feb 076
• Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 080/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/10/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01