Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Feb 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 11 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. A C1.0 flare occurred
from Region 734 (S04E44) at 11/1000Z. LASCO imagery showed a CME
off the SE limb at 11/0254Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at
ACE showed a decline from approximately 680 km/s to 620 km/s during
the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 – 14 February. Today’s CME
is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 11 Feb 114
- Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 115/115/110
- 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 011/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/011
- Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
- B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05