Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 11, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 11 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. A C1.0 flare occurred
from Region 734 (S04E44) at 11/1000Z. LASCO imagery showed a CME
off the SE limb at 11/0254Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at
ACE showed a decline from approximately 680 km/s to 620 km/s during
the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 – 14 February. Today’s CME
is not expected to be geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Feb 114
  • Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 115/115/110
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 011/017
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/011
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 008/010-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

  • B. High Latitudes
  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.