Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Feb 2003
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A long duration C1 flare and
CME occurred at 10/2124Z. SXI imagery confirmed that the likely
source of this activity was just behind the west limb, probably old
Region 274 (S05, L=225). Region 280 (S06W42) produced a C2 flare at
11/1743Z. No other significant activity or changes were observed in
the remaining small and magnetically simple regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Occasional low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a single active
period at higher latitudes between 11/0000 – 0300Z. Solar
wind conditions, slightly elevated in recent days, have declined to
normal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 135
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 010/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
